For many Nigerians, the fear of kidnapping has become part of everyday life, influencing decisions about where to live, when to travel and whether to invest in businesses, particularly farming. This is the security situation Dr Ope Banwo has highlighted in his assessment of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s performance, awarding the administration four out of 10.

Banwo delivered the verdict in the second episode of his Jagaban Scorecard Series, a 12-part review of Tinubu’s performance in office, in which he examines the administration’s record across different sectors.

In his assessment, the political analyst argued that the spread of kidnapping beyond areas traditionally regarded as hotspots had made security a concern across several parts of the country.

He listed health workers, traditional rulers, religious leaders, students, doctors, farmers, travellers and other ordinary citizens among those exposed to abduction, questioning whether Nigerians could confidently go about their activities without fear.

He drew particular attention to the implications for agriculture, saying farmers were increasingly reluctant to visit their farms because of the risk of being attacked or kidnapped.

Banwo illustrated the problem with the experience of a friend who operated large farms in northern Nigeria but was compelled by insecurity to return to Ogun State and rebuild his agricultural business.

He added that the situation had become worrying even in Ogun State, which he said could no longer be regarded as entirely safe.

According to him, when farmers cannot access their land safely, the consequences extend beyond the agricultural sector to ordinary Nigerians who depend on food production and the livelihoods supported by farming.

He warned that the same insecurity could discourage investors from committing funds to agriculture, particularly when workers and business owners face the possibility of attacks and abductions.

Banwo consequently described security as an economic policy issue, arguing that the safety of lives and property has a direct bearing on investment decisions.

He said Nigeria’s investor confidence was below the level required to attract the volume of investment the country needed, adding that prospective foreign investors paid attention to security reports and newspaper headlines when assessing the country.

In his view, investors do not examine tax laws and business regulations in isolation from the prevailing security environment. Reports of kidnappings and attacks, he argued, could influence their willingness to bring capital into the country.

Beyond the economic consequences, Banwo questioned the effectiveness of the government’s communication on military operations against terrorism.

He argued that Nigerians were often informed about the destruction of terrorist camps without being given sufficient details to assess the outcomes of such operations.

He also raised questions about the Orire rescue operation in Oyo State, where the military reportedly announced that abducted victims had been rescued, while their families claimed that ransom was paid to secure their release.

Banwo questioned the difference between the two accounts, suggesting that the circumstances surrounding the operation required greater clarity.

He also challenged the perception that the Tinubu administration was winning the war against insecurity, asking why some supporters of the All Progressives Congress (APC) continued to give the government a positive security rating when many Nigerians still felt unsafe.

He questioned whether those who celebrated the government’s security record could travel to their villages without requiring large contingents of armed policemen and soldiers for protection.

He equally pointed to the anxiety surrounding road journeys, saying many Nigerians still travelled with the fear that they might not return home safely.

For Banwo, such experiences should form part of the criteria for measuring the success of the government’s security policy, rather than relying exclusively on military announcements and official claims of progress.

He nevertheless acknowledged that Tinubu did not inherit a completely secure country, noting that insecurity had confronted previous administrations.

He recalled that former presidents Olusegun Obasanjo, Goodluck Jonathan and Muhammadu Buhari also had to contend with security challenges during their respective tenures.

However, he argued that the existence of inherited problems did not absolve the current administration of the responsibility to demonstrate measurable improvements.

Banwo also cautioned against the suggestion that nothing had changed under Tinubu, saying it would be unfair to dismiss every effort made by the government. His concern, however, was that the ultimate responsibility of government was not simply to confront criminals but to ensure that citizens could feel safe.

He criticised those who insist that Nigeria has never been safer, arguing that such claims should be considered against the daily experiences of people who remain afraid of travelling, farming and carrying out ordinary economic activities.

Returning to the human cost of insecurity, Banwo said the average Nigerian continued to worry about relatives travelling by road, while farmers and potential agricultural investors remained concerned about the possibility of attacks on their businesses.

He maintained that agriculture, despite its potential to become one of the country’s major sources of economic growth and earnings, would struggle to reach its full capacity if farmers could not work without fear.

In a pointed conclusion, he said the country’s security performance should be judged by whether ordinary citizens such as Mama Ramota, Iya Sule, Mama Ngozi and Mama Deen could sleep peacefully and travel without turning every journey into a prayer meeting.

He described the question confronting many Nigerians before embarking on a journey as a troubling one: “Am I going to make it back home?”

Banwo concluded that until such fears were substantially addressed, the government’s security achievements would remain insufficient in the eyes of ordinary citizens.

He consequently awarded Tinubu four out of 10 on the security index, bringing the second episode of the Jagaban Scorecard Series to a close.